Google Analytics

Showing posts with label prediction. Show all posts
Showing posts with label prediction. Show all posts

Saturday, January 09, 2010

2010 Predictions for Learning and Technology at eLearn Mag

The annual predications for eLearn Magazine from a bunch of folks in the eLearning and learning and technology fields. Predictions for 2010

Check of the predications and add your own!

Here is the long version of my 100 word prediction.
Virtual Immersive Environments (VIEs) for corporate use will gain additional traction in 2010 with some major announcements concerning integration with more traditional enterprisewide software systems such as MS SharePoint. This in spite of the fact that virtual worlds still seem to be in the “Trough of Disillusionment” in the technology Hype Cycle. VIEs will begin to pull out of the trough toward the fourth quarter of 2010 as productive uses of these worlds begin to be exploited. This will be fueled by a number of breakthrough examples of real learning and productivity results from 3D virtual world learning implementations.

These implementations will capture the imagination of more and more CLOs and the activity around virtual immersive environments will pick up. As the industry comes out of the trough there will be a bit of a shake up in terms of player consolidation, new player arrivals and existing players seizing a larger market share. Second Life Enterprise edition will finally “get off the ground” and make some impact.
__

Bookmark and Share
Catalog of Recommended Books, Games and Gadgets
Recommended Games and Gadgets
Recommended Books
Content Guide

Thursday, January 22, 2009

My 2008 E-Learning Predictions...Not too bad.

Every year Lisa Neal Gualtieri of eLearn Magazine asks for e-learning predictions about the upcoming year. You can read the predictions in Predictions for 2009 and for the past few years Stephen Downes over at his Half an Hour blog grades the predictions. It really raises the stakes of the predictions but is a great exercise in reflection and revisiting ideas to determine validity and accuracy of scope. I enjoy his grading of the predictions...it keeps everyone on their toes.

You can see his entire list of grades at Last Year's Predictions For 2008, Reviewed.

Here is my prediction and grade from Stephen.

Predicted: Content within corporations and universities is going to become more and more disaggregated and learner created. Truly valuable content will be found as short videos on YouTube, entries on blogs, or a favorite page on a wiki, none will be housed in a Learning Management System. In fact, I predict a corporate version of YouTube will emerge just as the academic version, TeacherTube previously emerged. Formalized "instructional design" will begin to look more like "instructional assembly," in that what is traditionally thought of as a course will really be the efforts of an instructional designer to assemble disaggregated pieces of related content into a coherent flow for novice learners or learners who are not comfortable with assembling the content themselves for whatever reason.

Grade: B-

Content did become more disaggregated and learner created, continuing a trend that has been evident for several years. Penalty for non-falsifiability: if valuable content were housed on a learning management system, this would not be evident to the wider internet. No corporate version of YouTube emerged. 'Instructional assembly' did not emerge as a wide practice. Maybe in a few years.
So as any good student would do...I am going to take this chance to argue for a higher grade.

I do admit to the non-falsifiability of the disaggregation of content...although I see it happening in several organizations... also not as much instructional assembly is happening as I thought it would.

However, the point I want to hang a potentially higher grade on is the emergence of a corporate YouTube.

Recently, we have seen the emergence of sites providing video instruction focused on a corporate/professional audience. Here is a list of a few of the sites.

Wistia--This site allows you to share your videos inside and outside of company walls. This allows you to control who can view your content and to regulate the content. The videos can be used for training and sales and marketing. The videos even track who is watching them and what parts they've watched and what parts were not watched.

WordPress TV--This site contains many videos all some how related to WordPress but not just about the software. There is information about blogging and social media as well as other related topics. Sure it is focused in one area but it is professionally focused.

Adobe TV--This site is similar to WordPress but is all about Adobe products. Here the $100 laptop is discussed as well as every Adobe product from PhotoShop to Acrobat. There is an education channel, a How-To channel and many other topics. Again, corporate focused videos.

So, given the "evidence" (somewhat shaky but I think it makes the case) I'd like to know what you think. Is the grade appropriate or should it be raised a bit?

__

Catalog of Recommended Books, Games and Gadgets
Recommended Games and Gadgets
Recommended Books
Content Guide

Monday, January 12, 2009

Predications for 2009


It is that time of year again. Lisa Neal Gualtieri of eLearn Magazine has issued her annual list of predications from elearning folks in academia, business and not-for-profit organizations. Take a look and let me know what your predictions are for 2009.

eLearn Magazine's Predictions for 2009
__

Catalog of Recommended Books, Games and Gadgets
Recommended Games and Gadgets
Recommended Books
Content Guide

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Some Questions and Answers

Recently, someone sent me some questions about the field of e-learning and I thought I'd answer them here and give everyone a chance to provide input as well.

1) How is e-Learning Evolving?

I think it is evolving along four paths. The first is a "quick and dirty" path. This is e-learning that needs to be done quickly, has information that is not permanent and that needs to be provided to as many people as possible as quickly as possible. This uses simple development tools typically based on PowerPoint that have minimal functionality but maximum "ease-of-use."

The second path is toward greater interactivity and interactions through games and simulations. These efforts are being driven by the "gamer" generation and cost much more than option one but are used more for permanent information, high-end skills like leadership or operating complicated and difficult machinery or software and provide a high degree of fidelity.

The third path is toward Web 2.0 technologies. People are beginning to understand that learning is a process and not a one-time event. Since learning is a process, many people are beginning to understand the value of creating communities to foster the exchange of information and to use tools like blogs for capturing expert knowledge, wikis for collaboration and RSS feeds to help manage the overwhelming flow of data inundating employees in organizations and students in classes.

Finally, I see a movement, not just in e-learning but in business as well, toward virtual worlds for collaborative learning, design and transactions. People are naturally attracted to 3D environments and many people are beginning to scratch the surface on what is possible in virtual worlds. This is perhaps the most "far out" of the evolution I see but it is on the horizon.

Also, I hope that e-learning is evolving out of the course construct and into the "learning as a process" construct. We need to think of e-learning as supporting business operations and part of work and not as a separate event.

2) Business need for e-learning (business perspective) for instance how it would effect or impact that field?

If we look at the world in terms of cost of travel, risk associated with travel, time lost and other factors, I think business need and want e-learning more than ever. No longer is it practical to bring a salesforce together every quarter to have a meeting. Online tools are needed. Information is doubling at an unprecedented rate, we need to provide information and actionable knowledge to people more quickly. E-learning is one way this can be accomplished as well as Web 2.0 tools. So the need for online learning is being driven by the needs of businesses to continually reduce costs and increase productivity.

3. How IT is growing and developing the way businesses work?

New technologies are creating new ways of doing business and are shaping the world of work. Business-to-business online auctions, 3D spaces for collaborative design, RSS feeds to inform customers and clients, online marketplaces for the ranking items by consumers and the concept of "the long tail" are all IT related factors that are driving and shaping business decisions, even things like self-service interactive web sites created by insurance companies to help you manage your diseases and health care are all shaping interactions and the way businesses work. As we find new ways to create technologies, some clever person will find new ways to leverage them for business. It might be the same day or it might be a few months or years later but new technologies will be leverage for new business models.

4. The growing business need for development and e-learning activities.

One constant with new technologies and new business models is that people need to constantly learn...or constantly have access to instructions, directions or performance supporting materials...thus e-learning as performance support and as a way to keep employees up-to-date and skilled. The need continues to grow and is only increasing with the complexities that are surrounding our global economy.

5. Benefits of hiring a contractor vs. hiring an employee.

This requires the old consultant answer "it depends." A contractor provides the greatest amount of flexibility for the organization, it can also be a lower cost solution because once a project or specific task set is over, the contractor can be let go and can move on to her next job. It also provide the possiblity of hiring the best person with a specific skill set because the skills don't ever need to tranfer to other parts of the organization when a person's job inevtiably changes.

On the other hand, an employee should be hired with skills in an organizations core skill set, they can then bring their years of experience with a certain company to the table when working on problems or developing solutions, full time employees also can develop relationships with customers and clients that can be invaluable and provide a sense of stability to customers. They can be groomed for future leadership positions and provide organizational insights not possible from a contractor.

Having said all that, I think modern organizations need a mix of full-time permanent employees as well as contractors and a degree of churn to constantly bring in new ideas. The best organizations are diverse in terms of people, backgrounds, beliefs, ages and gender, religion, etc. including full and contractor positions.


Thanks to Danny for the questions. Please feel free to add your comments and answers to the discussion.

__

Catalog of Recommended Books, Games and Gadgets
Recommended Games and Gadgets
Recommended Books
Content Guide

Saturday, January 05, 2008

2008 Predictions, Remembrance and Challenges


The ASTD Big Question for January is "What are your Predictions for Learning in 2008?"

First, I am going to borrow from the December 2006 Big Question which I really liked. The three questions, now modified for 2008, are:

  • What will you remember most about 2007?
  • What are the biggest challenges for you/us as head into 2008?
  • What are your predictions for 2008?
These are not easy questions to answer but here they are:

What will you remember most about 2007?


What are the biggest challenges for you/us as head into 2008?

Personally
  • Try to keep up with writing books, book chapters, blog entries, articles, presentations, letters of recommendation, grading papers, recruitment of students to our program, evaluation, consulting and everything else that seems to occur all at the same time. Time management is a big issue that I need to get some more control over in 2008.

  • Of course, it would always be nice to..."get in shape." Not always so easy as a "computer jockey" sitting at a desk all day but something worthy of effort. It is important but not urgent...I need to up the urgency.

  • This year it looks as I may be confronted with the issue of whether or not to accept corporate sponsorship of Kapp Notes. I like the idea of having "no strings attached" to my blog but there are some perks to sponsorship.

  • I hope to continue to make good friends through blogging and the blogosphere.

  • I need to publish some more peer reviewed articles (didn't I say that last year?)

Professionally
  • I think the field needs to focus on intelligent use of technology by concentrating on specific learning strategies that are successful for learning and helping people take more responsibility for learning.

  • To continue the momentum built up around Gadgets, Games and Gizmos for Learning.

  • Continue to help students understand, appreciate and become excited about the field of instructional design and technology.

  • Contribute to Michael Allen's 2nd e-Learning annual.

  • Write another book and create some products useful to people as they struggle to make sense of the fast and furious world of e-learning, learning and training.
What are your predictions for 2008?
  • Dis-integration of course materials. I see a lot of material being developed by end users (learners) via the Web 2.0 technologies and then instructional designers acting more like instructional assemblers.

  • Some type of corporate YouTube-esque product is released, professional videos for professional trainers. Not sure if free or a subscription model.

  • Continued focus on mobile learning...I envison something like GeekBrief TV as a great use of mobile. TrainingBrief TV perhaps? Maybe this is really related to the prediction above.

  • Introduction of a highly popular "Second Life"-esque product focused specifically on training industry takes training industry by storm through the introduction of some serious money and one or two big names behind the effort.

  • Several easy-to-use game development tools will be introduced along the lines of Articulate's Engage product making interactive games available to instructional designers at all levels.

  • If economic recession becomes a reality as spoken about...layoffs in the e-learning and training field will hit toward the end of 2008.

  • I will continue to blog and enjoy the online community of bloggers, lurkers and others.

In conclusion HAPPY AND HEALTHY NEW YEAR TO ALL!!!
__

Recommended Games and Gadgets
Recommended Books
Content Guide